One of the strangest crabmeat markets ever is about to get even stranger. Venezuela is scheduled to implement conservation measures on August 15. As it appears currently, they will pick crabs for a few days after the 15th, so let’s assume the last shipment of fresh crabmeat arrives in Miami by August 20th.
Assuming there is enough volume available, and with a 21-day shelf life, we should be able to get through Labor Day weekend with Venezuelan fresh crab meat. This is going to be dependent on the market, but what happens in September and for the first three weeks in October?
People in the “Bulls” camp would have you believe that everyone has to buy mid $30 a pound Indonesian jumbo lump. However, you can tell there are cracks in their “wall of worry.” Suddenly, there are a few pallets of expensive $30-plus jumbo lump for sale that wastn’t available a short while ago.
First, receivers of pasteurized crabmeat know that after Labor Day, crabmeat sales drop off dramatically. They don’t want to be stuck with high-priced inventory this winter, with more arriving weekly. Everyone took a major hit (lost money) on pasteurized meat in 2022.
With that pain still fresh in mind, no one wants to repeat that this year. $33 a pound for pasteurized jumbo is like a lit stick of dynamite – you just don’t want it to go off in your hand.
Meanwhile, those in the “Bears” camp believe that other fresh crabmeat suppliers will step up and supply the market. They believe that fresh crab meat production from Mexico, Colombia, and even the US will be enough to satisfy the declining demand. Only time will be able to truly tell.
Prices are subjected to change.
07/11/2023
